Long-term follow-up study of a population-based 1996–1998 mass screening programme for lung cancer using mobile low-dose spiral computed tomography

Summary 

Early diagnosis and treatment are important for improvement of the low survival rate of patients with lung cancer. The objective of this study was to evaluate the long-term survival rate of patients identified to have lung cancer by our population-based baseline and annual repeat low-radiation dose computed tomography (low-dose CT) screenings, conducted in 1996–1998. A total of 13,037 CT scans were obtained from 5480 subjects (2969 men, 2511 women) aged 40–74 years at the initial CT screening. Lung cancer was detected in 63 subjects (57 were detected by CT scans and underwent surgery; 1 was detected by sputum cytology and underwent surgery; 3 rejected treatment; and 2 were interval cases that developed symptoms prior to the next annual repeat CT screening). Follow-up study included review of medical records. Death certificates were examined to check for any deceased interval case among participants. Postoperative follow-up of the 50 survived patients ranged from 70 to 117 (median, 101) months. Eight patients died during follow-up (6 due to lung cancer from 20 to 67 months after surgery and 2 deaths unrelated to lung cancer, each 7 and 60 months following surgery). Three patients who rejected treatment died 14 months to 6 years after positive screening CT scans, and the 2 interval cases died at each 17 and 30 months, respectively, following negative screening CT scans. Survival was analysed in 59 patients with lung cancer detected by low-dose CT screening (excluding two patients; one was detected by sputum cytology and the other had mass lesion already noted on the chest radiograph of the previous year). The 10-year survival calculated by the Kaplan–Meier method was 83.1% (95% CI: 0.735–0.927) for death from all causes and 86.2% (95% CI: 0.773–0.951) for death from lung cancer. The survival rate was excellent for never-smokers, patients with BAC and adenocarcinoma/mixed types with non-solid CT density pattern, associated with Noguchi's type A or B and pathologic stage IA. A poorer prognosis was noted in smokers with adenocarcinomas/mixed types, associated with part-solid or solid CT density pattern and Noguchi's type C or D. All patients with non-solid tumours measuring 6–13.5mm at presentation are alive, patients with part-solid tumours, measuring 17mm or more, or solid tumours, measuring 13mm or more at presentation were associated with increased risk of lung cancer-related morbidity or mortality.

The estimated rate of possible over-diagnosis was 13% in total and we failed to cure 17% of patients encountered in the programme. Low-dose CT screening substantially improves the 10-year survival for lung cancer with minimal use of invasive treatment procedures.

Keywords: Lung cancer, Screening, Computed tomography (CT), Chest